Probabilistic Assessment of World Recoverable Shale Gas Resources

Abstract

Abstract Many shales previously thought of as only source rocks are now recognized as self-sourcing reservoirs that contain large volumes of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons that can be produced using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. However, shale gas resources and development economics are uncertain, and these uncertainties beg for a probabilistic solution. Our objective was to probabilistically determine the distribution of technically recoverable resources (TRR) and shale original gas in place (OGIP) in highly uncertain and risky shale gas reservoirs for seven world regions. To assess technically recoverable resources, we used the distribution of recovery factors from shale gas reservoirs. We developed a software, Unconventional Gas Resource Assessment System (UGRAS), which integrates Monte Carlo simulation with an analytical reservoir simulator to establish the probability distribution of OGIP and TRR. We used UGRAS to evaluate the most productive shale gas plays in the United States, including the Barnett, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Fayetteville, and Haynesville shales, and derived a representative distribution of recovery factors for shale gas reservoirs. The recovery factors for the five shale gas plays follow a general Beta distribution with a mean value of 25%. Finally, we extended the distribution of recovery factors gained from our analyses of shale gas plays in the U.S. to estimate technically recoverable shale-gas resources for the seven world regions. Total technically recoverable shale gas resources are estimated to range from 4,000 Tcf (P90) to 24,000 Tcf (P10). UGRAS is a robust tool that may be used to evaluate and rank shale-gas resources worldwide. This work provides important statistics for the five most productive shale-gas plays in the United States. Results of this work verify the existence of significant technically recoverable shale gas resources worldwide and can help industry better target its exploitation efforts in shale-gas plays.