Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Modeling for Improved Standpipe Pressure Prediction

Abstract

Abstract During drilling operations, it is common to see pump pressure spikes when flow is initiated, including after a connection or after a prolonged break in drilling operations. It is important to be able to predict the magnitude of such pressure spikes to avoid compromising wellbore integrity. This study shows how a hybrid approach using data-driven machine learning coupled with physics-based modeling can be used to accurately predict the magnitude of pressure spikes. To model standpipe pressure behavior, machine learning techniques were combined with physics-based models via a rule-based, stochastic decision-making algorithm. To start, neural networks and deep learning models were trained using time-series drilling data. From there, physics-based equations that model the pressure required to break the mud's gel strength as well as the flow of non-Newtonian fluids through the entire circulation system were used to simulate standpipe pressure. Then, these two highly different methods for predicting/modeling standpipe pressure were combined by a hidden Markov model using a set of rules and transition probabilities. By combining machine learning and physics-based approaches, the best features of each model are leveraged by the hidden Markov model, yielding a more accurate and robust prediction of pressure. A similar result is not achievable with a purely data-driven black-box model, because it lacks a connection to the underlying physics. Our study highlights how drilling data analysis can be optimally leveraged. The overarching conclusion: hybrid modeling can more accurately predict pump pressure spikes and capture the transient events at flow initiation when compared to physics-based or machine learning models used in isolation. Moreover, the approach is not limited to pressure behavior but can be applied to a wide range of well construction operations. The proposed approach is easy to implement and the details of implementation are presented in this study. Being able to accurately model and manage the pressure response during drilling operations is essential, especially for wells drilled in narrow-margin environments. Pressure can be more accurately predicted through our proposed hybrid modeling, leading to safer, more optimized operations.