Influence of preand intraoperative factors on hospital mortality after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. A retrospective study

Abstract

Introduction. The Vasoactive-Inotropic Score has been shown as a good predictor of adverse events in postoperative period. Nevertheless, the score is not included in modern predictive models. Objectives. To modify the nomogram that was created as a result of the E-CABG registry trial, and to evaluate the efficacy of the modification to predict 30-day mortality after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Materials and methods. Pre- and intraoperative data of 158 patients who underwent elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass was analyzed. Based on the obtained results, the SYNTAX value in the original nomogram was replaced with the VIS value. The predictive model was evaluated in ROC-analysis. Results. The frequency of 30-day mortality in group was 5,06 %. According to the results of ROC-analysis the modified nomogram has AUC = 0,897 (0.844- 0.951) (p < 0.001). The cut-off value was 12.75 points (sensitivity - 87.5 %; specificity - 86.7 %). Conclusions. The modified nomogram has an excellent predictive ability for 30-day mortality.