Analysis of the wind waves height and the duration of ice-free period along the Northern Sea Route from 1979 to 2021

Abstract

The study deals with the analysis of wind waves in the Arctic seas of Russia along the Northern Sea Route. Data on wind wave parameters were obtained on the basis of the WAVEWATCH III spectral model, and data on wind and sea ice concentration for the period from 1979 to 2021 – from the NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis. Estimates of the distribution of the average, maximum and 95th percentile height of significant waves and the duration of ice-free period along two variants of the route along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) have been obtained with a space resolution of ~20 km. Trends of the parameters under consideration were also estimated for 43 years. The minimum duration of ice-free period is about 30 days on the northern route of the NSR in the East Siberian Sea. The minimum duration on the southern route is never less than 65 days. The average annual wave height during the ice-free period exceeds 2 m in the Barents Sea, 1,6 m in the Chukchi Sea and is no more than 1,2 m for the rest of the route. The maximum wave height and the 95th percentile of wave height are significantly lower on the southern route. The trends for the duration of the ice-free period are positive all along the NSR, and amount to 15–20 days per 10 years. The maximum trend values of 52 days per 10 years are observed north of the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago. The minimum values of trends for the ice-free period are observed in the area of the Vilkitsky Strait and in the northeastern part of the Kara Sea. The maximum trend for wave height during the ice-free period is observed in the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea reaching 0,33 m in 10 years on the northern and 0,12 m in 10 years on the southern route of the NSR.