COVID-19 mortality trends before and after the national vaccination program in Iran: A joinpoint regression analysis

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the trend of mortality by COVID-19 before and after the national vaccination program using joinpoint regression analysis from 19 February 2020 to 5 September 2022. Methods: In the present study, a joinpoint regression analysis of monthly collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 in Iran from February 19, 2020 to September 5, 2022 was performed. Results: After national vaccination in Iran, the trend of new monthly deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing. The percentage of monthly changes from the beginning of the pandemic to the 19th month was 6.62% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.4), which had an increasing trend. From the 19th month to the end of the 31st month, the mortality trend was decreasing, and the percentage of monthly changes was −20.05% (95% CI: −8.3, −30.3) (P=0.002). The average percentage of monthly changes was −5% with a 95% CI of (−10.5, 0.9). Conclusions: Along with other health measures, such as quarantine, wearing a mask, hand washing, social distancing, etc., national vaccination significantly reduces the mortality rate of COVID-19.