The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States

Author:

Moghadas Seyed M1ORCID,Vilches Thomas N2,Zhang Kevin3,Wells Chad R4,Shoukat Affan4,Singer Burton H5,Meyers Lauren Ancel6,Neuzil Kathleen M7,Langley Joanne M8,Fitzpatrick Meagan C7,Galvani Alison P4

Affiliation:

1. Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

2. Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing, University of Campinas, Campinas SP, Brazil

3. Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

4. Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

5. Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA

6. Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA

7. Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA

8. Canadian Center for Vaccinology, Dalhousie University, IWK Health Centre and Nova Scotia Health Authority, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Abstract

Abstract Background Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. Methods We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States. Results Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%–5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%–9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%–62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%–66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%–68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%–73.1%), respectively, across the same period. Conclusions Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.

Funder

Canadian Institutes of Health Research

São Paulo Research Foundation

National Institutes of Health

National Science Foundation

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Microbiology (medical)

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