1. Quantifying uncertainty into numerical probabilities for the reporting of intelligence;Brown;RAND Report R-1185-ARPA,1973
2. Optimal statistical decisions;DeGroot,1970
3. Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity;Einhorn;Psychological Review,1978
4. A model of calibration for subjective probabilities;Ferrel;Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,1980
5. Foresight: Its logical laws, its subjective sources;de Finetti;Annales de l'Institute Henri Poincare,1937