Pattern and Forcing of Northern Hemisphere Glacier Variations During the Last Millennium

Abstract

Time series depicting mountain glacier fluctuations in the Alps display generally similar patterns over the last two centuries, as do chronologies of glacier variations for the same interval from elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Episodes of glacier advance consistently are associated with intervals of high average volcanic aerosol production, as inferred from acidity variations in a Greenland ice core. Advances occur whenever acidity levels rise sharply from background values to reach concentrations ≥1.2 μequiv H+/kg above background. A phase lag of about 10–15 yr, equivalent to reported response lags of Alpine glacier termini, separates the beginning of acidity increases from the beginning of subsequent ice advances. A similar relationship, but based on limited and less-reliable historical data and on lichenometric ages, is found for the preceding 2 centuries. Calibrated radiocarbon dates related to advances of non-calving and non-surging glaciers during the earlier part of the Little Ice Age display a comparable consistent pattern. An interval of reduced acidity values between about 1090 and 1230 A.D. correlates with a time of inferred glacier contraction during the Medieval Optimum. The observed close relation between Noothern Hemisphere glacier fluctuations and variations in Greenland ice-core acidity suggests that sulfur-rich aerosols generated by volcanic eruptions are a primary forcing mechanism of glacier fluctuations, and therefore of climate, on a decadal scale. The amount of surface cooling attributable to individual large eruptions or to episodes of eruptions is simlar to the probable average temperature reduction during culminations of Little Ice Age alacier advances (ca. 0.5°–1.2°C), as inferred from depression of equilibrium-line altitudes.