Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for a gliding mammal in north-eastern Australia

Abstract

We used MaxEnt to model the current distribution of the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) and to predict the likely shift in the species’ future distribution under climate-warming scenarios in the Wet Tropics (WT) Bioregion in north Queensland and in the South-eastern Queensland (SEQld) Bioregion, which encompasses south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Bioclimatic layers were used to generate models from 57 independent records in the WT and 428 records in SEQld. The modelled distribution of core habitat under current climate showed a good fit to the data, encompassing 91% and 88% of the records in each area, respectively. Modelling of future warming scenarios suggests that large contractions in distribution could occur in both bioregions. In the WT, 98% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming (1°C increase) and 100% under high warming (2−3°C increase) by 2070. In SEQld, 80% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming and 90% under high warming by 2070. These results suggest that this species is highly vulnerable to climate warming and highlight the importance of focusing conservation efforts at the bioregional scale. There is also a need to identify potential thermal refuges and ensure habitat connectivity.