A heatwave forecast service for Australia

Abstract

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology monitors, researches, predicts and communicates Australia’s weather and climate. Australia’s mean temperature has risen by over 1°C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Extreme heat can profoundly impact human health, infrastructure and the environment. Research conducted at the Bureau and elsewhere shows that climate change is impacting the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. One way that the Bureau has responded to this challenge is by providing a forecast service specifically targeted at identifying heatwaves. The heatwave service identifies areas expected to be impacted by three or more consecutive days of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures on a national map. The service has been developed with clear impact-based categories of heatwave severity. This heatwave service is now available operationally on the Bureau’s website during the heatwave season (nominally November to March) and is proving a valuable tool for engaging the community, including emergency services, with forecasts and warnings of extreme heat.