Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910–2010

Abstract

Interannual rainfall variability in Australia is a source of risk within agricultural industries. Insights into changes to rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities are essential to inform adaptation strategies for climate risk management within the grazing industry. We investigated shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities between the periods 1910–1960 and 1961–2010 for the pastoral zone in Australia. Rainfall variability was also assessed for the high-rainfall and wheat–sheep zones. An index of variability was calculated by using gridded rainfall and pasture-growth data for both periods. The percentage change was then calculated as the difference in variation between the two periods. Overall, the variability of annual rainfall has significantly increased (P < 0.01) between the two periods for the pastoral zone. Pastoral regions in the Northern Territory had the greatest increases in pasture-growth variability, with 62–85% of the area affected by a significant increase in variability. Between the periods 1910–1960 and 1961–2010 across the wheat–sheep zone, annual rainfall variability significantly decreased (P < 0.01), with 70% of the area having a negative change, whereas for the high-rainfall zone, the variability did not change significantly. Monitoring ongoing trends in rainfall and pasture-growth variability is important to inform strategic grazing management. Management practices to mitigate the impacts of increased variability in pastoral regions are discussed.