Assessment of fish vulnerability to climate change in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea

Abstract

Vulnerability assessments provide a feasible yet infrequently used approach to expanding our understanding and evaluating the effects of climate change on fish assemblages. Here, we first used a fuzzy-logic expert system to quantitatively estimate the vulnerability and potential impact risks of climate change for fish species in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea (BSYS). The mean (±s.d.) vulnerability and the impact-risk indices for 25 dominant fish species were 51±22 and 62±12 respectively (with the highest possible value being 100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario). Miiuy croaker (Miichthys miiuy) was found to have the highest impact risk, whereas the glowbelly (Acropoma japonicum) had the lowest. Demersal fishes tended to be more vulnerable than pelagic fishes, whereas the opposite was found for impact risks. No significant correlation was found between species biomass and vulnerability (P>0.05). The assessment provided a comprehensive framework for evaluating climate effects in the BSYS and suggested that interspecific and habitat group differences should be considered when developing future climate-adaptive fishery policies and management measures in this region, as well as similar systems elsewhere in the world.