An analysis of climatic environments for plant-breeding purposes

Abstract

Variations in the regional means of a number of growing-season climatic variables, and combinations of them, are not highly correlated with the long-term regional distribution of mean wheat yields in Western Australia or with their variation between years. The data suggest that the growing season is characterized by a cyclical alternation of favourable and unfavourable conditions for crop growth. This oscillating pattern varies in amplitude and wavelength as a result of unpredictable 'between'- and 'within'-season variation in the regional distribution of rainfall. In the central zone of the study area, wheat production is subject mainly to between-season variation whilst in more marginal areas yield variation is confounded by opposing and reciprocating within-season effects. The consequences for plant breeding are that specific regional environments expected on the basis of climate do not occur predictably in the short term. It is argued that breeding objectives, selection strategies and regional testing should initially avoid complications associated with specific marginal environments by concentrating on general adaptability within the central zone, which monitors between-season variation only. Subsequent evaluation for additional adaptive features specific to marginal areas should be undertaken.