Modelling the effects of distance on the probability of fire detection from lookouts

Abstract

In the management of forest fires, early detection and fast response are known to be the two major actions that limit both fire loss and fire-associated costs. There are several inter-related factors that are crucial in producing an efficient fire detection system: the strategic placement and networking of lookout towers, the knowledge of the fire detection radius for lookout observers at a given location and the ability to produce visibility maps. This study proposes a new methodology in the field of forest fire management, using the widely accepted Fire Detection Function Model to evaluate the effect of distance and other variables on the probability that an object is detected by an observer. In spite of the known variability, the model seems robust when applied to a wide variety of situations, and the results obtained for the effective detection radius (13.4 km for poor conditions and 20.6 km for good conditions) are in general agreement with those proposed by other authors. We encourage the application of the new approach in the evaluation or planning of lookout networks, in addition to other integrated systems used in fire detection.