Uncertainty, risk and decision-making in an interdisciplinary context

Abstract

The article reflects the author’s methodological position that the phenomena of uncertainty and risk are considered within the context of decision-making problems. It is shown that the ability to quantify the probability of the occurrence of possible events makes it possible to fundamentally distinguish between risk situations and situations of uncertainty. Risk is the result of a decision and is always associated with a person who not only makes a choice, but also estimates the probabilities of possible outcomes and related losses. Risk is an integral indicator that combines estimates of both the probability of a decision and of the quantitative characteristics of its consequences. Every person has her own system of preferences, therefore there is no universal functional integrating estimates of probabilities and consequences. As a result, a person chooses the alternative that most closely matches her goals, assessments and value system. The typology of uncertainties in decision-making tasks, previously developed by the author, is supplemented.