A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics

Abstract

The Human System is within the Earth System. They should be modeled bidirectionally coupled, as they are in reality. The Human System is rapidly expanding, mostly due to consumption of fossil fuels (approximately one million times faster than Nature accumulated them) and fossil water. This threatens not only other planetary subsystems but also the Human System itself. Carrying Capacity is an important tool to measure sustainability, but there is a widespread view that Carrying Capacity is not applicable to humans. Carrying Capacity has generally been prescribed a priori, mostly using the logistic equation. However, the real dynamics of human population and consumption are not represented by this equation or its variants. We argue that Carrying Capacity should not be prescribed but should insteadbe dynamically derived a posteriori from the bidirectional coupling of Earth System submodels with the Human System model. We demonstrate this approach with a minimal model of Human–Nature interaction (HANDY). ▪  The Human System is a subsystem of the Earth System, with inputs (resources) from Earth System sources and outputs (waste, emissions) to Earth System sinks. ▪  The Human System is growing rapidly due to nonrenewable stocks of fossil fuels and water and threatens the sustainability of the Human System and to overwhelm the Earth System. ▪  Carrying Capacity has been prescribed a priori and using the logistic equation, which does not represent the dynamics of the Human System. ▪  Our new approach to human Carrying Capacity is derived from dynamically coupled Earth System–Human System models and can be used to estimate the sustainability of the Human System.