Kemajuan Penelitian Pemodelan Prediksi Demam Berdarah Dengue menggunakan Faktor Iklim di Indonesia : A Systematic Literature Review

Abstract

Since discovered firstly in 1968, number of cases and areas affected by DHF in Indonesia has been increased. In 2019, dengue cases have found in all provinces within 481 districts/cities (94%). Our research is conducted to analyze the current status and gaps of climate relationship and its modeling to DHF in Indonesia. A systematic searching of literature was carried out through the search engine PubMed and Google Scholar. The method includes determining questions, publication period, keywords, and criteria of literature. Thirty-two literatures have been selected according to the criteria. The study area has covered all provinces in Java, Bali and West Nusa Tenggara, several locations in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, while the eastern region has still limited study. Spatial and temporal variations were used predominantly at the city with monthly data scale. Relationship analysis between DHF cases and climate/non-climate has been used the Spearman’s and Pearson’s correlation. DHF prediction modeling involves dominant climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, humidity and non climate parameters using linear/non-linear relationships and static/dynamic models. Climate model development needs to be improved with a narrower spatial resolution and shorter time scale, elevation, mobilization, regional climate, and climate change scenarios to get appropriate model on a specific location.