Characteristics of forecast errors in the National Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model in winter

Abstract

By using the National Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC_AGCM) for the second generation monthly dynamic extended range system and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data accumulated during 1982-2010, the model forecast errors in winter temperature prediction and their relationship with external forcing factors are analyzed. Result indicates that the model can well reproduce the variation trends of winter temperature over Eurasia region, and the main interannual variability pattern of winter temperature over East Asian monsoon domain can be successfully presented. It reveals that the model has acceptable performances in winter temperature prediction over East Asian monsoon domain, while the forecast errors are still considerable. In spatial distribution, the forecast errors over lands are larger than those over oceans. Meanwhile, the errors at high latitudes are larger than at low latitudes, and they are also closely related to altitude. The principal components of forecast errors have significant association with the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration over some key regions, it is shown that the response capability to external forcings is insufficient. This may provide a valuable reference for improving the prediction skill of winter temperature for East Asian monsoon domain, in combination with the model response to external forcings.