On physical basis of ensemble prediction

Abstract

By viewing each integral process in the ensemble prediction as a locus of quasi-particle in the nonequilibrium statistical physics theory,numerical experiments of Lorenz model are performed,and under the circumstance that the initial value of the model is near the equilibrium state of different properties,the temporal evolution of the number of quasi-particles in the ground state and the first excited state is calculated in this paper.The results confirm that if the dynamic system has stable equilibrium states in the whole phase space,the long-range temporal evolutional behavior of the system in the vicinity of the stable equilibrium states is predictable.If the dynamic system has not any stable equilibrium state in the whole phase space and the initial value of the system is far away from the unstable equilibrium states,then most of the quasi-particles lie in the low-energy state within 1-2 weeks,i.e.it is most probable.If the initial value lies in the vicinity of the unstable equilibrium states,the temporal evolution of the system is almost unpredictable.This proves theoretically that the effect of the ensemble prediction obtained after performing a large number of integral processes in better than that from the single integral process of a single init ial value.This offers a physical explanation why the ensemble prediction has a h igher accuracy.