Cyclical Waves in the Economic Development of the U.S. and russia (Issues of Methodology and Analysis)

Abstract

The article describes the methodology for identifying and analyzing economic cycles, which are based on historical spectral approach that combines the advantages of the historical and economic analysis and spectral method of the study of economic series. The proposed approach is used to isolate and analyze both their own regular fluctuations of economic dynamics inherent in the developed economies and the vibrations induced by technological and external economic shocks. The analysis has been carried out on the basis of data on the dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy as the main driver of world cycles, and of Russia’s economy from 1861 to 2012 using the latest research on the reconstruction of the time-series of its economic dynamics. Finally, conclusions are drawn in relation to the state economic policy in the conditions of the global cyclical development.