Inter-Industry and Factor Models in Macroeconomic Analysis and Inter-Industry Research

Abstract

The return of the economy to normal development conditions in the post-coronavirus period implies not only the understanding of the new content and the relationship between quality and growth dynamics but also the advancement of methods for analyzing and forecasting economic dynamics and growth factors at macroeconomic, inter-sectoral and sectoral levels. The article examines the possibilities of using two main research tools for these purposes: inter-industry models based on the Input-Output tables, and macroeconomic and industry factor models.The authors not only cover a long history of the application of classical models of this type but also demonstrate new directions of their use in solving specific tasks of analysis and forecasting in a market economy based on the analysis of a modern system of «Input-Output» tables and development of the investment and fixed assets block model. In addition, the development of macroeconomic analysis methods that can be implemented through the sharing of inter-industry and factor models is highlighted. Based on factor models evaluation, the authors identify unique characteristics of individual periods of development of the Russian economy in the first 20 years of this century, the evolution of dynamic trends and reveal the role of main economic growth factors, as well as anticipated limitations of these factors in the long-term period. Using the research findings and taking into account requirements of the new wave of technology, the conclusion is made about the crucial role of the growing investments in innovation and infrastructural sectors of the economy and enhancing the efficiency of investment activities, but this applies even more to improving the quality of human capital. Formalized and non-formalized aspects of its assessment are noted. The latter address the problems of training and nurturing highly-skilled specialists (doers), but above all of unlocking the creative potential of the young generation, which have yet to create a new technological and social structure. The article also proposes the solution for several instrumental and methodological issues related to the development and use of models of this type. It is shown that sharing of cross-sectoral models, macroeconomic and sectoral factor functions allow for a more comprehensive approach to the analysis and forecasting of the economy, it links growth factors to production, and reflects the direct and inverse relationship between demand and supply. Directions for modeling of the necessary fixed capital investments coupled with production dynamics, support of the production facilities and carry-over (incomplete) construction, which, are according to the authors, an important step towards building a dynamic cross-industry balance.