Job structure evolution in Russia: Polarization, upgrading, stalemate

Abstract

In the study we explore the evolution of the job structure in the Russian economy during the first 20 years of this century. Does it change through a consequent substitution of relatively worst (in terms of quality) jobs by better jobs? Or through a destruction of middle quality jobs? Or do we observe stagnation and conservation of the job structure? Any structural change of this sort is usually triggered by technological progress that shapes demand for labor of different quality and complexity. In search for clues to these questions, the authors use large data sets which cover two sub-periods divided by the 2008—2009 crisis. The estimates presented in the paper allow reject the polarization hypothesis, and they document a fast upgrade of the job structure during the first sub-period and a much lower upgrade during the second one. Apparently, the risks of job polarization are likely to be minimal until the economic growth is recovered and the movement to the technological frontier is accelerated.