Affiliation:
1. Center for Energy Efficiency - XXI
Abstract
The EU is expected to introduce the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. The estimates of the resulting Russia’s economic loss, that can be found in the literature, appear to be blown up, static, and not directly related to the change in the incomes of Russian exporters. These estimates are driven by the authors’ speculations, rather than by the CBAM concept as announced by the EU. This paper aims to assess the potential implications of CBAM for the Russian raw materials exports. CBAM will launch a carbon intensity reduction race for industrial products. Those who will not be able to keep abreast of the leaders will be losing their market niches. Because Russia is freezing its current carbon intensity levels, it will see its CBAM exports shrink and, small at the beginning, export incomes reduction may gradually become substantial. At the same time, proactive GHG emission control in the industrial sector can help avoid the loss and even yield additional income.
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Finance
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