Forecasting changes in the balance of the country's energy supply system under the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

Abstract

Subject. The article investigates the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and implications of its implementation for the energy systems of countries with high carbon footprint. Objectives. The aim is to create a forecast of changes in the balance of the country's energy supply system, considering the gradual introduction of the CBAM with a decrease in the number of free permits for non-payment of declared emissions, and an increase in the coverage of emissions. Methods. The study employs methods of statistical analysis. Results. The study established that the introduction of the CBAM creates economic threats for exporting countries with a high carbon footprint. A national emissions trading system is a means of combating it. The paper shows that with the forecast price of carbon permits obtained on the basis of time series extrapolation, the introduction of a system of emission quotas will reduce losses in GDP and the total energy capacity of the country's energy system. Conclusions. The establishment of the system of emission quotas is a complex and lengthy process that requires the development and testing of economic and financial mechanisms.