Recovery experiences of the Russian economy: The patterns of the post-shock growth after 1998 and 2008 and future prospects

Abstract

The global economy is in recession due to the pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. Russia’s GDP in 2020 fell by 3.1% in relation to the level of 2019, so that the decline was more moderate than in 1998 (–5.3%) and 2009 (–7.8%). In the coming years, the Russian economy will have to recover and enter a new long-term growth path. At what expense and in which industries will this happen? Based on the experience of previous crises and using industry accounts of economic growth and Russia KLEMS data, we have examined possible sources of recovery of the Russian economy after the crisis of 2020. By analogy with the recovery after 2008—2009, it is likely to be associated with increased demand for raw materials on world markets and the reaction of the Russian oil and gas complex. Stagnation after 2008—2009 is due to a decrease in production efficiency, especially in the expanded mining complex (EMC), as well as the cessation of technological catching-up. Growth stimulation measures should include increasing the efficiency of the EMC, providing the adaptation of advanced technologies, and preserving existing adaptation channels in times of crisis — for example, successful export-oriented industries integrated into global value chains. In the long run sustainable growth assumes diversification of the economy.