Understanding the Gulf Ocean System Program: Informing Stakeholders and Improving Prediction of the Loop Current System Using Advanced Observational and Numerical Tools

Abstract

Abstract Objectives/Scope: This paper describes a program funded by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) that follows up on 2 (3-year) programs to better predict the behavior of the Gulf Loop Current and its associated eddies, which in some years create havoc to Offshore Technology Industries and activities in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The aim is to inform and integrate with Stakeholders for new and better products and agreed metrics to provide better tools for the end-users in the Gulf of Mexico. In recent years, 2015 and 2021 there were significant ocean current extremes that had major effects on the offshore industry which were difficult to predict and caused huge financial losses to offshore operations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Methods, Procedures, Process: Using data from remote autonomous vehicles such as surface drifters, profiling floats, ocean buoyancy gliders, wave powered vehicles, fixed bottom moored acoustic systems, a Topographic Rossby Wave array and a series of coastal fixed High Frequency radars new models will be developed to predict Loop current dynamics, eddy shedding and reabsorption. In addition, data collected will be used to determine upper ocean heat content and its role in prediction of hurricane intensity forecasts. The program has a strong group of Private/Public stakeholders and we are hoping to get wider involvement in this program to deliver the best and most timely information to end-users in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Results, Observations, Conclusions: In total NASEM has funded a $40 million research program that will improve prediction, improve human well-being and improve offshore safety, and that the program seeks to understand (in this context) what the end user community needs are, to provide the foundation for continued dialogue and to provide a model for future private-public partnerships between scientists, agencies, and industry. Novel/Additive Information: We believe that this program is unique as it relies on the involvement of industry and agency stakeholders at the beginning of the program so the observing systems and models can be co-designed and tailored to the recipient needs, not the other way around with has generally been the norm in the past.