Performance of the Hypotension Prediction Index May Be Overestimated Due to Selection Bias

Abstract

The Hypotension Prediction Index is a proprietary prediction model incorporated into a commercially available intraoperative hemodynamic monitoring system. The Hypotension Prediction Index uses multiple features of the arterial blood pressure waveform to predict hypotension. The index publication introducing the Hypotension Prediction Index describes the selection of training and validation data. Although precise details of the Hypotension Prediction Index algorithm are proprietary, the authors describe a selection process whereby a mean arterial pressure (MAP) less than 75 mmHg will always predict hypotension. We hypothesize that the data selection process introduced a systematic bias that resulted in an overestimation of the current MAP value’s ability to predict future hypotension. Since current MAP is a predictive variable contributing to Hypotension Prediction Index, this exaggerated predictive performance likely also applies to the corresponding Hypotension Prediction Index value. Other existing validation studies appear similarly problematic, suggesting that additional validation work and, potentially, updates to the Hypotension Prediction Index model may be necessary.