Delay and Disparity in Observed vs Predicted Incidence Rate of Screenable Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in disruption of healthcare services, including cancer screenings, yet data on this are limited. We sought to compare observed and expected cancer incidence rates for screenable cancers, quantifying potential missed diagnoses. STUDY DESIGN: Lung, female breast, and colorectal cancer patients from 2010 to 2020 in the National Cancer Database were standardized to calculate annual incidence rates per 100,000. A linear regression model of 2010 through 2019 incidence rates (pre-COVID) was used to calculate predicted 2020 incidence compared with observed incidence in 2020 (COVID) with subanalyses for age, sex, race, ethnicity, and geographic region. RESULTS: In total, 1,707,395 lung, 2,200,505 breast, and 1,066,138 colorectal cancer patients were analyzed. After standardizing, the observed 2020 incidence was 66.888, 152.059, and 36.522 per 100,000 compared with the predicted 2020 incidence of 81.650, 178.124, and 44.837 per 100,000, resulting in an observed incidence decrease of –18.1%, –14.6%, and –18.6% for lung, breast, and colorectal cancer, respectively. The difference was amplified on subanalysis for lung (female, 65 or more years old, non-White, Hispanic, Northeastern and Western region), breast (65 or more years old, non-Black, Hispanic, Northeastern and Western region), and colorectal (male, less than 65 years old, non-White, Hispanic, and Western region) cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: The reported incidence of screenable cancers significantly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), suggesting that many patients currently harbor undiagnosed cancers. In addition to the human toll, this will further burden the healthcare system and increase future healthcare costs. It is imperative that providers empower patients to schedule cancer screenings to flatten this pending oncologic wave.