Effectiveness of Remdesivir Treatment Protocols Among Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19: A Target Trial Emulation

Abstract

Background: Remdesivir is recommended for certain hospitalized patients with COVID-19. However, these recommendations are based on evidence from small randomized trials, early observational studies, or expert opinion. Further investigation is needed to better inform treatment guidelines with regard to the effectiveness of remdesivir among these patients. Methods: We emulated a randomized target trial using chargemaster data from 333 US hospitals from 1 May 2020 to 31 December 2021. We compared three treatment protocols: remdesivir within 2 days of hospital admission, no remdesivir within the first 2 days of admission, and no remdesivir ever. We used baseline comorbidities recorded from encounters up to 12 months before admission and identified the use of in-hospital medications, procedures, and oxygen supplementation from charges. We estimated the cumulative incidence of mortality or mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation with an inverse probability of censoring weighted estimator. We conducted analyses in the total population as well as in subgroups stratified by level of oxygen supplementation. Results: A total of 274,319 adult patients met the eligibility criteria for the study. Thirty-day in-hospital mortality risk differences for patients adhering to the early remdesivir protocol were −3.1% (95% confidence interval = −3.5%, −2.7%) compared to no early remdesivir and −3.7% (95% confidence interval −4.2%, −3.2%) compared to never remdesivir, with the strongest effect in patients needing high-flow oxygen. For mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, risk differences were minimal. Conclusions: We estimate that, among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, remdesivir treatment within 2 days of admission reduced 30-day in-hospital mortality, particularly for patients receiving supplemental oxygen on the day of admission.