Development and validation of prognostic nomogram for elderly patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma based on the SEER database

Abstract

This study sought to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) in patients with elderly clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ECCRCC). The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database provided data of the ECCRCC-afflicted patients diagnosed during the period from 2010 to 2015. This data was subsequently segregated into the training and validation sets randomly in a 7:3 ratio. The calibration curves, the receiver operating characteristic curves, the decision curve analysis and the Concordance index (C-index) were applied for the model evaluation. 9201 eligible cases from 2010 to 2015 were extracted; 6441 were included in the training cohort and 2760 in the validation cohort. The C-index for the training and validation sets were 0.710 and 0.709, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic and decision curve analysis curves demonstrated that nomograms outperformed the AJCC stage in predictive performance. Moreover, the nomogram was found to match closely with the actual observation, as indicated by the calibration plots. To make predictions with regard to the survival of the ECCRCC-afflicted individuals, and as a guide for treatment, the new nomogram could be used.