Food matters: Dietary shifts increase the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement

Author:

Humpenöder Florian1ORCID,Popp Alexander12ORCID,Merfort Leon13ORCID,Luderer Gunnar13ORCID,Weindl Isabelle1ORCID,Bodirsky Benjamin Leon1ORCID,Stevanović Miodrag1ORCID,Klein David1ORCID,Rodrigues Renato1ORCID,Bauer Nico1ORCID,Dietrich Jan Philipp1ORCID,Lotze-Campen Hermann14ORCID,Rockström Johan15ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.

2. Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen, Germany.

3. Global Energy Systems Analysis, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.

4. Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany.

5. Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.

Abstract

A transition to healthy diets such as the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet could considerably reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the specific contributions of dietary shifts for the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways remain unclear. Here, we use the open-source integrated assessment modeling (IAM) framework REMIND-MAgPIE to compare 1.5°C pathways with and without dietary shifts. We find that a flexitarian diet increases the feasibility of the Paris Agreement climate goals in different ways: The reduction of GHG emissions related to dietary shifts, especially methane from ruminant enteric fermentation, increases the 1.5°C compatible carbon budget. Therefore, dietary shifts allow to achieve the same climate outcome with less carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and less stringent CO 2 emission reductions in the energy system, which reduces pressure on GHG prices, energy prices, and food expenditures.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Reference65 articles.

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