Globally ubiquitous negative effects of nitrogen dioxide on crop growth

Author:

Lobell David B.1ORCID,Di Tommaso Stefania1ORCID,Burney Jennifer A.2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

2. School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.

Abstract

Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are among the most widely emitted pollutants in the world, yet their impacts on agriculture remain poorly known. NO x can directly damage crop cells and indirectly affect growth by promoting ozone (O 3 ) and aerosol formation. We use satellite measures of both crop greenness and NO x during 2018–2020 to evaluate crop impacts for five major agricultural regions. We find consistent negative associations between NO 2 and greenness across regions and seasons. These effects are strongest in conditions where O 3 formation is NO x limited but remain significant even in locations where this pathway is muted, suggesting a role for direct NO x damage. Using simple counterfactuals and leveraging published relationships between greenness and growth, we estimate that reducing NO x levels to the current fifth percentile in each region would raise yields by ~25% for winter crops in China, ~15% for summer crops in China, and up to 10% in other regions.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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