Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change

Published:2024-03-08 Issue:10 Volume:10 Page:
ISSN:2375-2548
Container-title:Science Advances
language:en
Short-container-title:Sci. Adv.

Author:

Devanand Anjana¹²^ORCID,Falster Georgina M.³⁴^ORCID,Gillett Zoe E.¹²,Hobeichi Sanaa¹²,Holgate Chiara M.³⁴^ORCID,Jin Chenhui⁵⁶^ORCID,Mu Mengyuan¹²^ORCID,Parker Tess⁵⁶^ORCID,Rifai Sami W.¹²⁷^ORCID,Rome Kathleen S.¹²^ORCID,Stojanovic Milica⁸^ORCID,Vogel Elisabeth¹⁹¹⁰,Abram Nerilie J.³⁴^ORCID,Abramowitz Gab¹²^ORCID,Coats Sloan¹¹,Evans Jason P.¹²^ORCID,Gallant Ailie J. E.⁵⁶^ORCID,Pitman Andy J.¹²,Power Scott B.⁵⁶¹²¹³^ORCID,Rauniyar Surendra P.¹⁴^ORCID,Taschetto Andréa S.¹²^ORCID,Ukkola Anna M.¹²^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

2. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

3. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

4. Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

5. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

6. School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

7. School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.

8. Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, Ourense 32004, Spain.

9. Water Research Centre, School of Civil Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

10. Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.

11. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA.

12. Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia.

13. Climate Services International, Oakleigh, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

14. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

Abstract

We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia’s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Link

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460

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