Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States

Published:2022-04 Issue:13 Volume:8 Page:
ISSN:2375-2548
Container-title:Science Advances
language:en
Short-container-title:Sci. Adv.

Author:

Touma Danielle¹²^ORCID,Stevenson Samantha¹,Swain Daniel L.³⁴⁵^ORCID,Singh Deepti⁶^ORCID,Kalashnikov Dmitri A.⁶^ORCID,Huang Xingying¹²^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

2. Climate and Global Dynamics Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.

3. Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.

4. Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.

5. The Nature Conservancy of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.

6. School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA, USA.

Abstract

Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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