Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs

Abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth’s reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.