SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

Published:2022-01-28 Issue:4 Volume:8 Page:
ISSN:2375-2548
Container-title:Science Advances
language:en
Short-container-title:Sci. Adv.

Author:

Wikle Nathan B.¹^ORCID,Tran Thu Nguyen-Anh²^ORCID,Gentilesco Bethany³,Leighow Scott M.⁴,Albert Emmy⁵^ORCID,Strong Emily R.¹^ORCID,Brinda Karel⁶⁷^ORCID,Inam Haider⁴^ORCID,Yang Fuhan²,Hossain Sajid⁸^ORCID,Chan Philip³,Hanage William P.⁶^ORCID,Messick Maria⁹,Pritchard Justin R.⁴,Hanks Ephraim M.¹^ORCID,Boni Maciej F.²¹⁰^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

2. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

3. Department of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.

4. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Bioengineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

5. Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

6. Center for Communicable Disease Dynamic, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

7. Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

8. Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.

9. Rhode Island Office of the Governor and Rhode Island Department of Health, Providence, RI, USA.

10. Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Abstract

State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania—that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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