Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Published:2020-07-17 Issue:6501 Volume:369 Page:315-319
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Baker Rachel E.¹²^ORCID,Yang Wenchang³^ORCID,Vecchi Gabriel A.¹³^ORCID,Metcalf C. Jessica E.²⁴^ORCID,Grenfell Bryan T.²⁴⁵

Affiliation:

1. Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

3. Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

4. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

5. Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

Abstract

CORONAVIRUS In some quarters, it is hoped that increased humidity and higher temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere in the summer will snuff out the 2020 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. In reality, the situation is likely to be more complicated than that. Baker et al. used a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, testing different scenarios of climate dependence based on known coronavirus biology. Levels of susceptibility among the population remain the driving factor for the pandemic, and without effective control measures, the pandemic will persist in the coming months, causing severe outbreaks even in humid climates. Summer will not substantially limit pandemic growth. Science this issue p. 315

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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