Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations

Published:2024-07-05 Issue:27 Volume:10 Page:
ISSN:2375-2548
Container-title:Science Advances
language:en
Short-container-title:Sci. Adv.

Author:

Zhao Haikun¹^ORCID,Zhao Kai¹,Klotzbach Philip J.²^ORCID,Chand Savin S.³^ORCID,Camargo Suzana J.⁴^ORCID,Cao Jian¹^ORCID,Wu Liguang⁵

Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster (CIC-FEMD)/Pacific Typhoon Research Center/Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.

2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.

3. Institute of Innovation, Science and Sustainability, Federation University, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia.

4. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.

5. Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Abstract

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to a relatively short period of reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simulations. Using TC detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) of these models show a decrease in global-scale TC frequency from 1850 to 2014. We demonstrated that this result is largely explained by weakened mid-tropospheric upward motion in CMIP6 models over the Pacific and Atlantic main development regions. The reduced upward motion is due to a zonal circulation adjustment and shifts in Intertropical Convergence Zone in response to global warming. In the South Indian Ocean, reduced TC frequency is mainly due to the decreased survival rate of TC seeds because of an increased saturation deficit in a warming climate. Our analysis highlights global warming’s potential impact on the historical decrease in global TC frequency.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Link

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adl2142

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