A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk

Abstract

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic TCs under past (1980–2017) and future climate (SSP585; 2015–2050) conditions from an ensemble of four high-resolution climate models. We then derive high-resolution (10-km) wind speed return period maps up to 1000 years to assess local-scale changes in wind speed probabilities. Our results indicate that the probability of intense TCs, on average, more than doubles in all regions except for the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. Our unique and innovative methodology enables globally consistent comparison of TC risk in both time and space and can be easily adapted to accommodate alternative climate scenarios and time periods.