1. Eventually this process will lead to large cohorts of retired people. Although one might surmise that this will act as a drag on economic growth the data indicate otherwise. Presumably this is because many elderly people work (or enable others to work by minding their children) some of them continue to save and many continue to impart their accumulated knowledge to others. Nevertheless the demographic dividend is not permanent. Eventually the large cohorts pass on and their effect on the age distribution diminishes. Demographic change thus creates a window of opportunity for economic growth but not one that remains perpetually open (5).
2. Bloom D. E., Canning D., Population Does Matter: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World,, Birdsall N., Kelley A. C., Sinding S., Eds. (Oxford Univ. Press, New York)in press).
3. For an up-to-date list of citations see World Health Organization World Health Report 1999: Making a Difference (WHO Geneva 1999).
4. Strauss J., Thomas D., J. Econ. Lit.36, 766 (1998)for a comprehensive review of related evidence, based on household surveys, of the links between health and productivity. See.
5. Bloom D. E., Williamson J. G., World Bank Econ. Rev.12((3)), 419 (1998).