The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers

Author:

Barbi Elisabetta1ORCID,Lagona Francesco2ORCID,Marsili Marco3ORCID,Vaupel James W.4567,Wachter Kenneth W.8ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

2. Department of Political Sciences, University of Roma Tre, Rome, Italy.

3. Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Rome, Italy.

4. Interdisciplinary Center for Research and Education on Population Change, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.

5. Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.

6. Duke University Population Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA.

7. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

8. Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.

Abstract

Mortality rates level off at extreme age The demography of human longevity is a contentious topic. On the basis of high-quality data from Italians aged 105 and older, Barbi et al. show that mortality is constant at extreme ages but at levels that decline somewhat across cohorts. Human death rates increase exponentially up to about age 80, then decelerate, and plateau after age 105. Science , this issue p. 1459

Funder

U.S. National Institute on Aging

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference26 articles.

1. XXIV. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. In a letter to Francis Baily, Esq. F. R. S. &c

2. Age patterns of mortality for older women: An analysis using the age‐specific rate of mortality change with age

3. V. Kannisto Development of Oldest-Old Mortality 1950-1990: Evidence from 28 Developed Countries (Odense Univ. Press 1994).

4. Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages

5. A. R. Thatcher V. Kannisto J. W. Vaupel The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120 (Odense Univ. Press 1998).

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