Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus

Abstract

Vaccine prioritization There is likely to be high demand for the limited supplies of vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), so how should vaccine distribution be prioritized? Bubar et al. modeled across countries how uncertainty about a vaccine's characteristics affects prioritization strategies for reducing deaths and transmission (see the Perspective by Fitzpatrick and Galvani). In the model, vaccine efficacy and its ability to reduce disease and/or block transmission was accounted for in relation to age-related variations in susceptibility, fatality rates, and immune decline. In almost all circumstances, reducing fatalities required distributing the vaccine to those who are most at risk of death, usually persons over 60 years of age and those with comorbidities. If a vaccine is leaky or poorly efficacious in older adults, then priority could be given to younger age groups. To increase the available doses, further priority should be given to seronegative individuals. Science , this issue p. 916 ; see also p. 890