Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution

Abstract

Rethinking Vaccine Distribution The distribution of vaccines is a complex issue lying at the intersection of public health, economics, and ethics and it cannot be decided in hindsight as an epidemic unfolds. Thus, mathematical modeling can be valuable for guiding policy, and Medlock and Galvani (p. 1705 , published online 20 August) present an analysis of how to distribute influenza vaccine among different age groups in a way that will minimize transmission. Scenarios were developed for different outcomes that tell us what happens, in terms of numbers of infections, mortality, and cost, when various cohorts are targeted for vaccination under different epidemic conditions, and compare 1918- and 1957-like epidemics. The scenarios could apply equally well to antiviral drug distribution. The conclusion is that the current recommendations for vaccine distribution from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may need to be revised to include age-related patterns of transmission to minimize the impact of epidemic influenza.