Biodemographic Trajectories of Longevity

Author:

Vaupel James W.1,Carey James R.1,Christensen Kaare1,Johnson Thomas E.1,Yashin Anatoli I.1,Holm Niels V.1,Iachine Ivan A.1,Kannisto Väinö1,Khazaeli Aziz A.1,Liedo Pablo1,Longo Valter D.1,Zeng Yi1,Manton Kenneth G.1,Curtsinger James W.1

Affiliation:

1. J. W. Vaupel is at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany; Odense University Medical School, DK-5000 Odense C, Denmark; the Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706, USA; and Andrus Gerontology Center, the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089–0191, USA. J. R. Carey is in the Department of Entomology, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA 95616–8584, USA. K. Christensen, N. V. Holm, I. A. Iachine, and V. Kannisto...

Abstract

Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights—concerning the correlation of death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality—offer clues and suggest research on the failure of complicated systems, on new demographic equations for evolutionary theory, and on fertility-longevity interactions. Nongenetic changes account for increases in human life-spans to date. Explication of these causes and the genetic license for extended survival, as well as discovery of genes and other survival attributes affecting longevity, will lead to even longer lives.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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