Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted

Published:1997-03-14 Issue:5306 Volume:275 Page:1616-1616
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Geller Robert J.¹,Jackson David D.²,Kagan Yan Y.²,Mulargia Francesco³

Affiliation:

1. R. J. Geller is at the Department of Earth and Planetary Physics, Faculty of Science, Tokyo University, Yayoi 2-11-16, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan.

2. D. D. Jackson and Y. Y. Kagan [–] are at the Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA.and

3. F. Mulargia is at the Dipartimento di Fisica, Settore di Geofisica, Universita di Bologna, Viale Berti Pichat 8, 40127 Bologna, Italy.

Abstract

Can the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes be predicted reliably and accurately? In their Perspective, Geller et al .'s answer is “no.” Citing recent results from the physics of nonlinear systems “chaos theory,” they argue that any small earthquake has some chance of cascading into a large event. According to research cited by the authors, whether or not this happens depends on unmeasurably fine details of conditions in Earth's interior. Earthquakes are therefore inherently unpredictable. Geller et al . suggest that controversy over prediction lingers because prediction claims are not stated as objectively testable scientific hypotheses, and due to overly optimistic reports in the mass media.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference39 articles.

1. See R. J. Geller Astron. Geophys. 38 16 (February/March 1997) for a compilation of pro-prediction items in the mass media. For past Perspectives see C.-Y. King N. Koizumi Y. Kitagawa Science 269 38 (1995); J. Vidale ibid. 271 953 (1996); and P. G. Silver and H. Wakita ibid. 273 77 (1996). Supplementary discussion and supporting citations are available at [SUPPL. A].

2. There was intense optimism about prediction in the early to mid-1970s [C. H. Scholz L. R. Sykes Y. P. Aggarwal Science 181 803 (1973); F. Press Sci. Am. 232 14 (May 1975); “Forecast: Earthquake ” Time 106 38 (1 September 1975)] but this optimism was soon recognized to be unwarranted [R. A. Kerr Science 200 419 (1978); C. R. Allen Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72 S331 (1982)]. The fundamental flaw was that the prediction scenarios were not stated as testable hypotheses.

3. Earthquake Prediction

4. Macelwane J. B., Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 36, 1 (1946);

5. Richter C. F. Elementary Seismology (Freeman San Francisco 1958) pp. 385–387.

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