No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

Abstract

Not a big deal after all Do volcanic eruptions affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability? Models indicate that sulfate aerosols resulting from large eruptions can initiate an El Niño–like response in the tropical Pacific, but observations have not shown evidence of such behavior. Dee et al . present an oxygen-isotope time series of fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to investigate ENSO's response to large volcanic eruptions during the past millennium. They found a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but not one that was statistically significant. These results suggest that large volcanic events have not triggered a detectable response in ENSO over the past thousand years and that their impact is small relative to the degree of natural variability. Science , this issue p. 1477