Coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction from Fiji extending to ~1370 CE reveals insights into the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Author:

D’Olivo Juan P.123ORCID,Zinke Jens456ORCID,Goyal Rishav78ORCID,England Matthew H.89ORCID,Purich Ariaan10ORCID,Corrège Thierry11,Zorita Eduardo12ORCID,Scholz Denis13ORCID,Weber Michael13ORCID,Carriquiry José D.3

Affiliation:

1. Unidad Académica de Sistemas Arrecifales, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto Morelos 77580, Mexico.

2. Institute for Geosciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin 12249, Germany.

3. Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanológicas, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, 22860 Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico.

4. School of Geology, Geography and Environment, University of Leicester, Leicester LE17RH, UK.

5. Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6102, Australia.

6. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia.

7. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

8. ARC Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

9. Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

10. School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, and ARC Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia.

11. EPOC, UMR 5805 CNR5, Université de Bordeaux, Pessac CEDEX F-33615, France.

12. Institute of Coastal Systems–Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz Centre Hereon, Geesthacht 21502, Germany.

13. Institut für Geowissenschaften, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz D-55128 Germany.

Abstract

The southwestern tropical Pacific is a key center for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which regulates global climate. This study introduces a groundbreaking 627-year coral Sr/Ca sea surface temperature reconstruction from Fiji, representing the IPO’s southwestern pole. Merging this record with other Fiji and central tropical Pacific records, we reconstruct the SST gradient between the southwestern and central Pacific (SWCP), providing a reliable proxy for IPO variability from 1370 to 1997. This reconstruction reveals distinct centennial-scale temperature trends and insights into Pacific-wide climate impacts and teleconnections. Notably, the 20th century conditions, marked by simultaneous basin-scale warming and weak tropical Pacific zonal-meridional gradients, deviate from trends observed during the past six centuries. Combined with model simulations, our findings reveal that a weak SWCP gradient most markedly affects IPO-related rainfall patterns in the equatorial Pacific. Persistent synchronous western and central Pacific warming rates could lead to further drying climate across the Coral Sea region, adversely affecting Pacific Island nations.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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