Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Author:

Sullivan Martin J. P.12ORCID,Lewis Simon L.13ORCID,Affum-Baffoe Kofi4,Castilho Carolina5ORCID,Costa Flávia6ORCID,Sanchez Aida Cuni78ORCID,Ewango Corneille E. N.91011ORCID,Hubau Wannes11213ORCID,Marimon Beatriz14ORCID,Monteagudo-Mendoza Abel15,Qie Lan16ORCID,Sonké Bonaventure17ORCID,Martinez Rodolfo Vasquez15ORCID,Baker Timothy R.1ORCID,Brienen Roel J. W.1ORCID,Feldpausch Ted R.18ORCID,Galbraith David1ORCID,Gloor Manuel1ORCID,Malhi Yadvinder19ORCID,Aiba Shin-Ichiro20,Alexiades Miguel N.21,Almeida Everton C.22ORCID,de Oliveira Edmar Almeida23ORCID,Dávila Esteban Álvarez24ORCID,Loayza Patricia Alvarez25ORCID,Andrade Ana26ORCID,Vieira Simone Aparecida27ORCID,Aragão Luiz E. O. C.1828ORCID,Araujo-Murakami Alejandro29ORCID,Arets Eric J. M. M.30ORCID,Arroyo Luzmila31,Ashton Peter32,Aymard C. Gerardo33ORCID,Baccaro Fabrício B.34ORCID,Banin Lindsay F.35ORCID,Baraloto Christopher36ORCID,Camargo Plínio Barbosa37ORCID,Barlow Jos38ORCID,Barroso Jorcely39ORCID,Bastin Jean-François4041ORCID,Batterman Sarah A.1424344ORCID,Beeckman Hans12ORCID,Begne Serge K.117,Bennett Amy C.1ORCID,Berenguer Erika1938ORCID,Berry Nicholas45ORCID,Blanc Lilian46,Boeckx Pascal47,Bogaert Jan48ORCID,Bonal Damien49ORCID,Bongers Frans50ORCID,Bradford Matt51,Brearley Francis Q.2,Brncic Terry52ORCID,Brown Foster53,Burban Benoit54ORCID,Camargo José Luís26ORCID,Castro Wendeson55ORCID,Céron Carlos56,Ribeiro Sabina Cerruto57ORCID,Moscoso Victor Chama15ORCID,Chave Jerôme58ORCID,Chezeaux Eric59,Clark Connie J.25,de Souza Fernanda Coelho1ORCID,Collins Murray6061,Comiskey James A.6263ORCID,Valverde Fernando Cornejo64ORCID,Medina Massiel Corrales65,da Costa Lola66,Dančák Martin67ORCID,Dargie Greta C.1,Davies Stuart68,Cardozo Nallaret Davila69ORCID,de Haulleville Thales1248ORCID,de Medeiros Marcelo Brilhante70,del Aguila Pasquel Jhon71ORCID,Derroire Géraldine72ORCID,Di Fiore Anthony73ORCID,Doucet Jean-Louis74ORCID,Dourdain Aurélie72ORCID,Droissart Vincent75ORCID,Duque Luisa Fernanda76,Ekoungoulou Romeo77,Elias Fernando78ORCID,Erwin Terry79,Esquivel-Muelbert Adriane80ORCID,Fauset Sophie81ORCID,Ferreira Joice82ORCID,Llampazo Gerardo Flores83,Foli Ernest84,Ford Andrew51,Gilpin Martin1ORCID,Hall Jefferson S.85ORCID,Hamer Keith C.86,Hamilton Alan C.87,Harris David J.88ORCID,Hart Terese B.8990ORCID,Hédl Radim9192ORCID,Herault Bruno479394ORCID,Herrera Rafael95ORCID,Higuchi Niro6ORCID,Hladik Annette96,Coronado Eurídice Honorio71,Huamantupa-Chuquimaco Isau97ORCID,Huasco Walter Huaraca97,Jeffery Kathryn J.98ORCID,Jimenez-Rojas Eliana99ORCID,Kalamandeen Michelle1100101ORCID,Djuikouo Marie Noël Kamdem111317102ORCID,Kearsley Elizabeth41ORCID,Umetsu Ricardo Keichi103ORCID,Kho Lip Khoon104ORCID,Killeen Timothy105ORCID,Kitayama Kanehiro106,Klitgaard Bente107ORCID,Koch Alexander108,Labrière Nicolas58ORCID,Laurance William109,Laurance Susan109ORCID,Leal Miguel E.110ORCID,Levesley Aurora1ORCID,Lima Adriano J. N.6,Lisingo Janvier11,Lopes Aline P.28ORCID,Lopez-Gonzalez Gabriela1ORCID,Lovejoy Tom111ORCID,Lovett Jon C.1107ORCID,Lowe Richard112,Magnusson William E.113ORCID,Malumbres-Olarte Jagoba114115ORCID,Manzatto Ângelo Gilberto116ORCID,Marimon Ben Hur117,Marshall Andrew R.8118119ORCID,Marthews Toby120ORCID,de Almeida Reis Simone Matias1419ORCID,Maycock Colin121ORCID,Melgaço Karina1ORCID,Mendoza Casimiro122,Metali Faizah123ORCID,Mihindou Vianet124125ORCID,Milliken William107ORCID,Mitchard Edward T. A.61ORCID,Morandi Paulo S.14ORCID,Mossman Hannah L.2ORCID,Nagy Laszlo126,Nascimento Henrique6,Neill David127ORCID,Nilus Reuben128,Vargas Percy Núñez95,Palacios Walter129,Camacho Nadir Pallqui195ORCID,Peacock Julie1ORCID,Pendry Colin88ORCID,Peñuela Mora Maria Cristina130,Pickavance Georgia C.1,Pipoly John131ORCID,Pitman Nigel132ORCID,Playfair Maureen133ORCID,Poorter Lourens50ORCID,Poulsen John R.25ORCID,Poulsen Axel Dalberg88ORCID,Preziosi Richard2,Prieto Adriana134,Primack Richard B.135,Ramírez-Angulo Hirma136,Reitsma Jan137,Réjou-Méchain Maxime75ORCID,Correa Zorayda Restrepo76ORCID,de Sousa Thaiane Rodrigues6ORCID,Bayona Lily Rodriguez138ORCID,Roopsind Anand139ORCID,Rudas Agustín134ORCID,Rutishauser Ervan43140ORCID,Abu Salim Kamariah123,Salomão Rafael P.141142ORCID,Schietti Juliana6ORCID,Sheil Douglas143ORCID,Silva Richarlly C.57144ORCID,Espejo Javier Silva145,Valeria Camila Silva38ORCID,Silveira Marcos57,Simo-Droissart Murielle17,Simon Marcelo Fragomeni70ORCID,Singh James146,Soto Shareva Yahn Carlos15,Stahl Clement54ORCID,Stropp Juliana147ORCID,Sukri Rahayu123ORCID,Sunderland Terry148149ORCID,Svátek Martin150ORCID,Swaine Michael D.151ORCID,Swamy Varun152,Taedoumg Hermann153154,Talbot Joey1ORCID,Taplin James155,Taylor David156ORCID,ter Steege Hans157158ORCID,Terborgh John25,Thomas Raquel139,Thomas Sean C.159ORCID,Torres-Lezama Armando160,Umunay Peter161162,Gamarra Luis Valenzuela15,van der Heijden Geertje163ORCID,van der Hout Peter164,van der Meer Peter165ORCID,van Nieuwstadt Mark166,Verbeeck Hans41ORCID,Vernimmen Ronald167ORCID,Vicentini Alberto6ORCID,Vieira Ima Célia Guimarães144ORCID,Torre Emilio Vilanova168ORCID,Vleminckx Jason36ORCID,Vos Vincent169170ORCID,Wang Ophelia171ORCID,White Lee J. T.98124172,Willcock Simon173ORCID,Woods John T.174,Wortel Verginia175ORCID,Young Kenneth176ORCID,Zagt Roderick177ORCID,Zemagho Lise17,Zuidema Pieter A.50ORCID,Zwerts Joeri A.133166ORCID,Phillips Oliver L.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.

2. Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK.

3. Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK.

4. Mensuration Unit, Forestry Commission of Ghana, Kumasi, Ghana.

5. Embrapa Roraima, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Brasília, Brazil.

6. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Brazil.

7. Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

8. Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK.

9. DR Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Kisangani, Democratic Republic of Congo.

10. Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestiere (CEFRECOF), Epulu, Democratic Republic of Congo.

11. Faculté de Gestion de Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani, Kisangani, Democratic Republic of Congo.

12. Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren, Belgium.

13. Department of Environment, Laboratory of Wood Technology (Woodlab), Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.

14. UNEMAT - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina-MT, Brazil.

15. Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Peru.

16. School of Life Sciences, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK.

17. Plant Systematics and Ecology Laboratory, Higher Teachers’ Training College, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

18. Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

19. Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

20. Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.

21. School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.

22. Instituto de Biodiversidade e Florestas, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém - PA, Brazil.

23. Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Cáceres - MT, Brazil.

24. Escuela de Ciencias Agrícolas, Pecuarias y del Medio Ambiente, National Open University and Distance, Bogotá, Colombia.

25. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.

26. Projeto Dinâmica Biológica de Fragmentos Florestais, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil.

27. Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil.

28. National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil.

29. Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.

30. Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.

31. Dirección de la Carrera de Biología, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.

32. Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

33. Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar, Herbario Universitario, Guanare, Venezuela.

34. Departamento de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.

35. UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, UK.

36. International Center for Tropical Botany, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA.

37. Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.

38. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.

39. Centro Multidisciplinar, Universidade Federal do Acre, Cruzeiro do Sul, AC, Brazil.

40. Institure of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

41. Department of Environment, Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology (CAVELab), Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.

42. Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.

43. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama, Panama.

44. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, USA.

45. The Landscapes and Livelihoods Group, Edinburgh, UK.

46. UR Forest and Societies, CIRAD, Montpellier, France.

47. Isotope Bioscience Laboratory (ISOFYS), Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.

48. Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.

49. UMR Silva, INRAE, Nancy, France.

50. Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.

51. CSIRO Land and Water, Australia.

52. Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzavile, Republic of Congo.

53. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA.

54. INRAE, UMR EcoFoG, CNRS, CIRAD, AgroParisTech, Université des Antilles, Université de Guyane, 97310 Kourou, French Guiana.

55. Programa de Pós-Graduação Ecologia e Manejo de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.

56. Herbario Alfredo Paredes, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador.

57. Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.

58. Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, UMR 5174 (CNRS/IRD/UPS), CNRS, Toulouse, France.

59. Rougier-Gabon, Libreville, Gabon.

60. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.

61. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

62. Inventory and Monitoring Program, National Park Service, Fredericksburg, VA, USA.

63. Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, USA.

64. Proyecto Castaña, Made de Dios, Peru.

65. Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa, Arequipa, Peru.

66. Instituto de Geociências, Faculdade de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Para, Belém, PA, Brazil.

67. Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Palacký University Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic.

68. Center for Tropical Forest Science, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama, Panama.

69. Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Peru.

70. Embrapa Genetic Resources and Biotechnology, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Brasília, Brazil.

71. Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Peru.

72. Cirad, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE, Université des Antilles, Université de Guyane), Kourou, French Guiana.

73. Department of Anthropology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.

74. Forest Resources Management, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.

75. AMAP, Universite de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.

76. Socioecosistemas y Cambio Climatico, Fundacion con Vida, Medellín, Colombia.

77. School of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China.

78. Institute of Biological Sciences, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, PA, Brazil.

79. National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, USA.

80. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.

81. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK.

82. Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Brasília, Brazil.

83. Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre de Grohmann (UNJBG), Tacna, Peru.

84. Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG), Kumasi, Ghana.

85. Smithsonian Institution Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.

86. School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.

87. 128 Busbridge Lane, Godalming, Surrey, UK.

88. Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

89. Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.

90. Division of Vertebrate Zoology, Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History, New Haven, CT, USA.

91. Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic.

92. Department of Botany, Palacký University in Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic.

93. CIRAD, UPR Forêts et Sociétés, Yamoussoukro, Côte d’Ivoire.

94. Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny, INP-HB, Yamoussoukro, Côte d’Ivoire.

95. Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC), Caracas, Venezuela.

96. Département Hommes, Natures, Sociétés, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturel, Paris, France.

97. Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru.

98. Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK.

99. Instituto IMANI, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Leticia, Colombia.

100. Living with Lakes Centre, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Canada.

101. Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

102. Faculty of Science, Department of Botany and Plant Physiology, University of Buea, Buea, Cameroon.

103. PELD, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina-MT, Brazil.

104. Tropical Peat Research Institute, Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Selangor, Malaysia.

105. Agteca, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.

106. Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.

107. Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, Richmond, London, UK.

108. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Pok Ful Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

109. Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Douglas, QLD, Australia.

110. Uganda Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Kampala, Uganda.

111. Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.

112. Botany Department, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

113. Coordenação da Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Mauaus, Brazil.

114. cE3c – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes / Azorean Biodiversity Group, Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal.

115. LIBRe – Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.

116. Laboratório de Biogeoquímica Ambiental Wolfgang C. Pfeiffer, Universidade Federal de Rondônia, Porto Velho - RO, Brazil.

117. Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias, Biológicas e Sociais Aplicadas, Universidad do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina-MT, Brazil.

118. Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, QLD, Australia.

119. Flamingo Land Ltd., North Yorkshire, UK.

120. UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.

121. School of International Tropical Forestry, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia.

122. Escuela de Ciencias Forestales, Unidad Académica del Trópico, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Sacta, Bolivia.

123. Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei.

124. Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux, Libreville, Gabon.

125. Ministère de la Forêt, de la Mer, de l'Environnement, Chargé du Plan Climat, Libreville, Gabon.

126. Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil.

127. Facultad de Ingeniería Ambiental, Universidad Estatal Amazónica, Puyo, Pastaza, Ecuador.

128. Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department, Sepilok, Malaysia.

129. Carrera de Ingeniería Forestal, Universidad Tecnica del Norte, Ibarra, Ecuador.

130. Grupo de Ecosistemas Tropicales y Cambio Global, Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam, Tena, Ecuador.

131. Public Communications and Outreach Group, Parks and Recreation Division, Oakland Park, FL, USA.

132. Keller Science Action Center, Field Museum, Chicago, IL, USA.

133. Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS), Paramaribo, Suriname.

134. Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Leticia, Colombia.

135. Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.

136. Institute of Research for Forestry Development (INDEFOR), Universidad de los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela.

137. Bureau Waardenburg, Culemborg, Netherlands.

138. Centro de Conservacion, Investigacion y Manejo de Areas Naturales, CIMA Cordillera Azul, Lima, Peru.

139. Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Georgetown, Guyana.

140. Carboforexpert, Geneva, Switzerland.

141. Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia/CAPES, Belém, PA, Brazil.

142. Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém, PA, Brazil.

143. Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway.

144. Instituto Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.

145. Universidad de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru.

146. Guyana Forestry Commission, Georgetown, Guyana.

147. Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain.

148. Sustainable Landscapes and Food Systems, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia.

149. Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.

150. Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic.

151. Department of Plant and Soil Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.

152. Institute for Conservation Research, San Diego Zoo, San Diego, CA. USA.

153. Department of Plant Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Yaounde 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

154. Bioversity International, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

155. UK Research and Innovation, Innovate UK, London, UK.

156. Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

157. Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, Netherlands.

158. Systems Ecology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

159. Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.

160. Universidad de los Andes, Merida, Colombia.

161. Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY, USA.

162. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.

163. School of Geography, University of Notingham, Nottingham, UK.

164. Van der Hout Forestry Consulting, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

165. Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences, Velp, Netherlands.

166. Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.

167. Data for Sustainability, Axel, Netherlands.

168. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, OR, USA.

169. Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado, La Paz, Bolivia.

170. Universidad Autónoma del Beni José Ballivián, Riberalta, Bolivia.

171. School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.

172. Institut de Recherche en Ecologie Tropicale, Libreville, Gabon.

173. School of Natural Sciences, University of Bangor, Bangor, UK.

174. University of Liberia, Monrovia, Liberia.

175. Forest Management, Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS), Paramaribo, Suriname.

176. Department of Geography and The Environment, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.

177. Tropenbos International, Wageningen, Netherlands.

Abstract

Thermal sensitivity of tropical trees A key uncertainty in climate change models is the thermal sensitivity of tropical forests and how this value might influence carbon fluxes. Sullivan et al. measured carbon stocks and fluxes in permanent forest plots distributed globally. This synthesis of plot networks across climatic and biogeographic gradients shows that forest thermal sensitivity is dominated by high daytime temperatures. This extreme condition depresses growth rates and shortens the time that carbon resides in the ecosystem by killing trees under hot, dry conditions. The effect of temperature is worse above 32°C, and a greater magnitude of climate change thus risks greater loss of tropical forest carbon stocks. Nevertheless, forest carbon stocks are likely to remain higher under moderate climate change if they are protected from direct impacts such as clearance, logging, or fires. Science , this issue p. 869

Funder

David and Lucile Packard Foundation

Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation

FP7 Ideas: European Research Council

Natural Environment Research Council

State of São Paulo Research Foundation

Royal Society

European Research Council

the National Council for Science and Technology Development of Brazil

Leverhulme Trust

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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