Simulation of suitable growth areas for the endangered species of Ephedra sinica in China

Abstract

Abstract Ephedra sinica is a rare and endangered species in China, and the survival environment of Ephedra sinica was seriously threatening. Predicting the suitable growth areas and constructing ecological corridors for Ephedra sinica in China will help to protect it scientifically. Based on 306 valid distribution records and 13 selected environmental factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the current Habitat zones and potential future (2050 and 2070) Habitat zones of Ephedra sinica under four change scenarios. The minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was applied to extract important ecological corridors of Ephedra sinica. The results indicate that: (1) Under the current environment, the total area of the suitable habitat for Ephedra sinica in China is 42.24×105 km2, mainly distributed in Northwest China and North China. (2) Future expansion of the suitable area as the RCP (representative concentration pathway) rises. The center of mass of the Habitat zone moved northward from Shaanxi Province to Ordos City in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (3) Of the 13 environmental factors selected, the primary factor was elevation (20.8%), followed by wettest month precipitation (18.2%) and temperature seasonality (15.2%). (4) Nineteen ecological corridors have been constructed, with a total corridor length of 430.2km, including seven long-distance passages and 12 short-distance corridors. All galleries are far from the artificial surface, mostly near high-altitude areas. In addition, the minimum cost distance has a good continuity within Ulanqab City, which can realize the connection between the Huitengxile grassland in the northwest of Ulanqab City and the Sumu Mountain Forest Park area in the southwest.