Evaluating Scenarios for School Reopening Under COVID19

Abstract

Abstract Background: Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effectively deliver education during the fall semester of 2020, amid the COVID19 pandemic. This study evaluates the public health impact of various school reopening scenarios (when, and how to return in-person instruction) on the spread of COVID19.Methods: An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the number of infections and deaths under multiple school reopening dates and scenarios, including different cohorts receiving in-person instruction on alternating days, only younger children returning to in-person instruction, regular schedule (all students receiving in-person instruction), and school closure (all students receiving online instruction). The study period was February 18th-November 24th, 2020 and the state of Georgia was used as a case study.Results: Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 17 to 22 thousand during the study period, and on the peak day, the number of new infections ranged from 43 to 68 thousand. An alternating school day schedule performed: (i) almost as well as keeping schools closed, with the infection attack rate ranging from 38.5% to 39.8% compared to that of 37.7% under school closure; (ii) slightly better than only allowing children 10 years or younger to return to in-person instruction. Delaying the reopening of schools had a minimal impact on reducing infections and deaths under most scenarios.Conclusions: Reopening schools following a regular schedule, i.e., all children returning to school without strict public health measures, would have serious negative public health consequences. The alternating school day schedule, especially if offered as an option to families and teachers who prefer to opt in, provides a good balance in reducing the infection spread compared to the regular schedule, while ensuring access to in-person education.